[HOSPITAL MORBIDITY OF CHILDREN IN THE CITY OF MOSCOW DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC].

The article presents information on trends in hospital morbidity of child population in Moscow, as well as morbidity of children in the first year of life. Authors used population data and information from Form No. 14 of the Federal statistical observational study "Information on the activities of the medical organization departments providing inpatient medical care" between 2014 and 2021.In addition to the general indexes, the article presents categories of diseases that were significantly affected by changes in the lifestyle of children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant fluctuations in the incidence of infectious diseases are worth noting as they are certainly related to both fragmentations in groups of children during the pandemic, and proper nutrition, which led to positive changes in hospital morbidity due to gastrointestinal disorders. Changes in education, social isolation, better control over hygiene by the government, society and parents has led to unprecedented positive dynamics in morbidity rates of certain diseases. It is worth noting that the COVID-19 infection during pregnancy didn't lead to expected high increases in morbidity rates associated with diseases in the perinatal period.In addition to hospital morbidity, the article presents data on mortality in 24-hour inpatient facilities, as well as changes in the proportion of emergency admissions of patients under 18 to Moscow state hospitals.

[IMPACT OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE INCIDENCE OF CHILDREN DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC].

The article provides information that allows you to form an idea of the health status of children of different age groups living in Moscow. The sources of information were data on the population size, federal statistical observation form No. 12 «Information on the number of diseases registered in patients living in the service area of a medical organization¼ for the period from 2016 to 2020. The morbidity analysis was carried out by age groups 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 0-14, 15-17 years per 100,000 of the corresponding population.

Estimation of the probability of daily fluctuations of incidence of COVID-19 according to official data.

When studying the dynamics of morbidity and mortality, one should not limit ourselves to analyzing general trends. Interesting information can be obtained from the analysis of deviations in morbidity and mortality from the general dynamics. Comparison of the cases of morbidity or death for adjacent time intervals allows us to find out whether the changes in conditions were for short periods of time and whether the cases of morbidity or death were independent. The article consists of two parts: Study of the probability distribution (CDF) of the difference between two independent observations of the Poisson distribution; Application of the results to analyze the morbidity and mortality trends by day for the new coronavirus infection. For the distribution function of the module of difference between two independent observations of the Poisson distribution, an analytical expression has been obtained that allows to get an exact solution. A program has been created, whose software can be downloaded at http://1mgmu.com/nau/DeltaPoisson/DeltaPoisson.zip. An approximate solution that does not require complex calculations has also been obtained, which can be used for an average of more than 20. If real difference is greater than expected, it may be in the following cases: morbidity or mortality varies considerably during the day. That could happen, for example, if the registered number of morbidity on Saturday and Sunday is less than on weekdays due to the management model of the health system, or if the cases are not independent; for example, due to the active identification of infected people among those who have come into contact with the patient. If the difference is less than expected, it may be due to external limiting factors, such as a shortage of test systems for making a diagnosis, a limited number of pathologists to determine the cause of death, and so on. In the analysis of the actual data for COVID-19 it was found that for Poland and Russia, excluding Moscow, the difference in the number of cases and deaths is greater than expected, while for Moscow-less than expected. This may be due to the information policy-the effort to somehow reassure Moscow's population, which in the spring of 2020 had a high incidence rate of the new coronavirus infection.